60 Signed Deals Yesterday
A: What Turkey Day slowdown?? Buyers are solidifying their deals before the Thanksgiving Day holiday - tells me they want things signed and sealed before we get into the slow part of the year.
I lost out on two deals recently for two separate clients, both of which had multiple offers. On another note, when setting up appts for a third client, at least 3 of the 8 desired properties are no longer showing because they have contracts expected to be signed any day. Take it for what it is, in the field observations. My experience is that buyers dont believe it, or take it slow, until they start to see highly desired property go to contract. When a serious buyer loses multiple desired properties to higher bidders, they tend to act more aggressive the next time around they find an apartment that meets all their needs. The cycle continues and experiences moments of seasonality throughout the year.
Here is the ROLEX Market Ticker that shows you newly signed contracts totals and updates up to 6x a day. If you have seen a bunch of listings go to contract recently, your not alone. Action has been solid for the past 6-7 weeks - notice how there were 60 deals signed yesterday:
**The screenshot shows the TODAY/YEST columns as links for my admin account only, where I did spot checks for data integrity for 10 months in development. So subscribers will not have those updating columns as links.
Posted by Wbottom
Wed Nov 24th, 2010 12:03 PM
whoa...quite the opposite of what i'd expected...assume that the monthly will pull back now for the balance of nov.. but i thought things would weaken, not strengthen, last weekend into this week
what's the over/under on nov's final num?
Posted by urbandigs
Wed Nov 24th, 2010 12:07 PM
Yea, me too Wbottom. Crazy. But Im living it out there, and got two very disappointed buyers that saw desired properties go to higher bidders. What can I say? When I see that I use caution, but now I have these real time tools and represents ALL REBNY exclusive listings for Manhattan, so there is no denying the data.
I would still say o/u for november is around 825 or so as the last 5-6 days should filter out a strong end to october.l I think.
Posted by anon
Wed Nov 24th, 2010 01:48 PM
What is the break down of the 60 that went into contract yesterday? Is it lower end, higher end, mid range apartments?
Posted by urbandigs
Wed Nov 24th, 2010 01:56 PM
definitely not mostly low end. Couple of biggies in there, including
535 WEA, 19th floor that was asking just under 19m
80 Riverside Blvd, PH3B, asking 6.2m
40 E 66th, 4B, asking 6.95m
149 E 73rd, 10A, asking 4.7m
40 5th Ave, 3A, asking about 4.8m
and about 21 more in the 1-3m range...
Market is moving..
Posted by Keith
Sat Nov 27th, 2010 06:24 PM
Two units we bid on had multiple offers, both myself and my client were skeptical and proceeded with "our" strategy. We lost both, no biggie we both felt good about our price conviction, but still it's pretty active out there for at least some properties. These were in the $2.3 range.
Also were outbid on a unit on Vestry street...that had been on the market a year. Supposedly they accepted a bid close to the current ask, that one caught me off guard and was a serious disappointed.
Bidding on another unit on Broadway in the Village, told there are multiple offers and we need to go significantly above ask....we'll see.
I expected November to be quiet, I just want to wrap things up and get down to Costa Rica for some end of year surf.
Posted by urbandigs
Sat Nov 27th, 2010 09:13 PM
im telling you, this system picks up the good stuff as manhattan real estate shifts. Oct and Nov were very active months. Period. Done. Its starting to slow down now due to seasonal reasons around thanksgiving, so the 30 day window as we get to end of month will be muted. In terms of buyers, what you are seeing is what my clients are seeing and what the data is showing, in real time. Lets watch inventory now, until we get past new years and into 3rd or 4th week of January.Id expect off market to fly and active to fall for the next 3-5 weeks
Posted by urbandigs
Sun Nov 28th, 2010 09:54 AM
Wbottom - the last 3 days finally filtered in the holidays, likely filtering out 30-40 contracts signed a day in late October for 2-5 or so the last few days. May be high 700s by the time NOV is over
Posted by subscriber
Sun Nov 28th, 2010 12:56 PM
Noah, when do you expect the market to start picking up again? I share the same sentiment as Keith, and we are in the market to buy a two bedroom apartment downtown. The only bid we sent in was for a property with 'three other higher offers' and one about to be accepted. That was three weeks ago. We are hoping things slow down a bit before bidding again.
Posted by urbandigs
Sun Nov 28th, 2010 03:57 PM
mid to end of January. With the holidays coming up after turkey day everything slows down. But to be clear, these tools are new to me as well. Lets see how the real time ticker and other tools handle the seasonality and if it picks up the tick up come mid to late January.
I would expect off market to rise as active falls, then reversing next year.
Posted by Wbottom
Mon Nov 29th, 2010 10:20 AM
seems there was a push to trade prior to thgvg
looking at the chart, so far seasonals rule, with fewer signings in general than fall 2009
it will be interesting to see how this week and pre-holiday weeks play out
Posted by urbandigs
Mon Nov 29th, 2010 05:29 PM
yea it does feel that way. and it seems today the market already put 27 into contract. I just feel like there are a bunch of contracts out/offers accepted - yet still showing until signed. Kind of like a pending sales for pending sales.
We once tracked that but found brokers rarely updated listings to these states prior to the CSGN state.