Midtown East Demand Sluggish?
A: Just browsing through all the submarkets and pending sales trends, and noticed that for most neighborhoods below 96th there was a nice tick up in action from this summer's lull. Except for Midtown East. For today's chart, lets look at the last quarter between Midtown East and Midtown West.
1QTR - PENDING SALES Midtown East vs Midtown West
Most other neighborhoods below 96th saw a bounce in the last 4-6 weeks, but I dont see it for Midtown East.
We also opened up the COMMENT section to all users, like the old days, hopefully to get more actively engaged discussions back. We will add a spam control element to this in a few days. Thanks
Posted by uwsider
Thu Nov 11th, 2010 10:40 AM
Lets see what midtown east has to offer
- not much for public schools, so family demand is low
- not much nightlife/lively so the rich and trendy demand is low
- only really suitable for those who want to be close to work
- probably alot of demand from investors outside NYC, they think close to rockerfella center, bloomies.. what better location
- sutton place is nice, the units in tudor city are kinda small
- not exactly discounted enough for local new yorkers to give it a second look
Posted by urbandigs
Thu Nov 11th, 2010 10:42 AM
hard to argue..its nice to be able to measure it and see it now though.
Posted by Diane
Thu Nov 11th, 2010 03:02 PM
I think that there would be a big difference between the different neighborhoods of Midtown East. Would you ever consider breaking them out individually into Sutton / Beekman / etc?
Posted by Noah
Sun Nov 14th, 2010 12:16 AM
Well they are both down about the same % from the beginning of the time series. Thats why we added those percentage tags up there for easy referencing. But Midtown East has 3x more inventory in pending, which means we should check into this a bit more. How much ACTIVE does each segment have and what has that done lately..
On quick check:
MIDTOWN EAST --> 1592 actve listings
MIDTOWN WEST --> 637 active listings
So, a higher percentage of deals out of total inventory are happening in Midtown East. However, when looking at ACTIVE trends (ill put something up tomorrow), Midtown West shows a sharp move down that appears to be a negative correlation to the move UP in pending shown in the red line chart above. Midtown east shows a steady rise in active inventory, as if demand just hasn't touched any of the new stuff that came on there lately.
As for breaking the two out, with a unique real time tracking platform like this we always worry about granularity. Now midtown east has more data so we could break it down, but on that note, shouldnt we separate say 81st and EEA with say the area around 76th and Madison/5th? Those are both the UES? Same with UWS? With annualized reports you can get away with that, but with real time, its better to have submarkets with more data to show trends. And maybe that is why midtown east is acting like it is, compared with midtown west. Maybe the fact we dont break it down further, its showing whats its showing. Maybe the buyers there act differently because midtown east boundaries are 'tighter' than in midtown west, changing how they perceive the products there? That to me is the innovation that is this new platform.
I will tell you that our new ACRIS section, which will come out in 4-5 months, will break down much deeper and will give a new look to comps analysis.