Understanding The Real-Time Ticker
A: Subscribers out there are noticing a decline in the pace of deals signed over the past 30 days; following our real time Manhattan market ticker. Now this is the data, and the ticker is accurate in showing the decline from levels seen the past few months. But I just want to go into detail a bit about how this ticker works and point out that the last 7-10 days of December and first 3-5 days of January saw the usual holiday market silence. Right now, the 30-day ticker is counting all those days while the strong days prior to the holidays finally got filtered out. Let me explain.
Manhattan real estate is a very fast paced marketplace that warrants real time tools to track it. However, one day or one week is not a trend make! I tend to focus on the 30-day trends at a bare minimum. But even when focusing on that for any changes in our market, we must keep in mind how the ticker works. The Real-Time Market Ticker shows you the following updates:
TODAY --> Updates 6-7x a day as brokers update the status of exclusive listings via Rolex sharing process
YEST --> Shows you the total capture from YESTERDAY
7-DAY --> Shows you a 7-DAY moving window of total changes
30-DAY --> Shows you a 30-DAY moving window of total changes
When I published the last check in on this real time ticker we saw much different numbers - click here for the last visual of this Real Time ticker. It showed 220 contracts signed in last seven days and 720 contracts signed in the last thirty days. Today, I see 144 contracts signed in the last seven days and 600 contracts signed in the last thirty days - quite a tick down. There are two reasons for this:
1) The last 7 days saw a decline in activity, that much we all can tell...
2) The stronger days of early December got filtered OUT of the tail end of the 30-Day moving window...
...and that is what I want to bring to your attention. If you plot on a timeline the total number of contracts signed each week and then take a step back so you can see the last few months, you will be able to see the tick UPS and the tick DOWNS in the trend. Factor in a bunch of holidays (xmas, new years) and a few snowstorms, and you should expect a week or two of silence - and that is exactly what happened. For those keeping tabs on the 30-DAY moving window in the Real-Time Listing Updates tool, please keep in mind that a) the strong early days in DEC are no longer counted and b) the bulk of the silence around the holidays and snowstorms are fully counted...
Take a look:
I hope that this visual will help explain how this 30-DAY Moving Window works..and why we have seen a noticeable tick down from levels seen in November and December. The stronger Nov & Dec pace is better seen in our Pending Sales chart; which looks at trends for the total pool of IN CONTRACT listings awaiting closing in Manhattan. The new UrbanDigs platform offers different tools with varying degrees of sensitivity when tracking the Manhattan markets. Some look daily (TODAY Real Time ticker column), others track monthly (Broker Updates Bar Charts), and yet others take a bigger picture view of the markets (Active, Pending, Off Market charts)
Right now, the ticker is counting the total # of new contracts signed between the period of Dec 18th - January 18th. Of that period, Dec 24th until January 4th or so was radio silence due to the holidays. These dull days are holding down the 30-day ticker and will continue to do so until we get past the first week in February!
That is why February, March and April tend to be the most active months of the year - a pace usually proven unsustainable as we head into the hot summer months.
Here is a Manhattan Monthly Bar Chart showing you the pace of CONTRACT SIGNED since January 2008:
As of now, the ticker shows the month of JAN on pace to come in around the low 600s; which would be a noticeable tick DOWN from the last 3 months. However, due to what I just discussed I would expect this number to rise as we filter out the slow days at the end of 2010 and replace them with fresh data yet to come in as we close out the month of January! Give me another week and I'll have a better idea.