How's Manhattan Doing Right Now You Ask??
A: The market is quite active! A check in on the Manhattan real time ticker will show us that the 30-day pace of new deals signed into contract is now over the 1,100 mark. Keep in mind that this measure tallies up daily contracts signed and then counts a moving window for thirty days. In other words, as of right now between March 23rd and April 22nd there has been 1,120+ new deals signed into contract. This is up from the mid 600s in January, the mid 800s in February and just over 1,000 in March. At months end, a final cleansing algorithm will kick in before the April bar is published; ensuring further data accuracy. You can't get a more real time look at demand than this ticker so it's worth it to track which way the trend is going.
The Manhattan Market Ticker
*updates 7x a day as brokers update exclusive listings that get shared to all brokers via the rolex process.
I boxed out the section you should focus on: the 30-day pace of new CONTRACTS SIGNED! You can see that its at 1,121 right now, up another 10% or so from last month's pace.
How do I know this? Subscribers get access to our monthly CONTRACTS SIGNED bar charts that show performance on a monthly basis. This allows us to see the current trend and compare a specific month to the same period 1 year prior! Since real estate is seasonal, its always best to look at year-over-year trends to filter out seasonal noise.
Here is a chart showing the pace of Manhattan Contracts Signed by Month:
Looking at the real time ticker at the beginning of the article, I can see that the current 30-day pace is just over 1,100. We still need to sustain this production for the next 7 days to stay over that mark, but as it looks now we are on pace to come close to last April's CSGN totals of 1,150 (see arrow on chart above).
Keep an eye on the daily ticker as Manhattan is currently seeing peak levels of activity right now, as we should for this time of year.
My advice to sellers that have been ACTIVE and waiting for a bid to come for 90 days or more, lower your price NOW because once we get past May the pace of demand will surely start to go in the other direction! Just look at the red bars in the above chart to see how the market played out last year. Right now, we are following 2010 fairly closely in regards to pace of demand trends. These tools are here to tell you when to take advantage of periods of demand and right now the market is hot with bids coming in.
So if you are not seeing any action, don't blame your broker, blame your price! In the end, the market dictates your home's worth!
Posted by agent
Sat Apr 23rd, 2011 12:25 PM
Very cool! Can we see what the properties are that go to contract everyday with a subscription?
Posted by urbandigs
Sat Apr 23rd, 2011 02:21 PM
agent - unfortunately no. As a rebny member, I can not advertise other rebny members exclusive listings without consent or a vow setup, which we dont have. Our user agreement specifically states that we can only publish derived analytics of the raw rolex data, and not the data itself
Posted by spyridonsophie
Sat Apr 23rd, 2011 07:52 PM
do you have this date for 2006 and 2007? and if you do can we see a bar graph of the same data
Posted by urbandigs
Sat Apr 23rd, 2011 08:30 PM
we do, but its flawed. I described why in my post back last September titled The new dev problem
http://www.urbandigs.com/2010/09/the_new_dev_problem_standardiz.html
Alot of my stuff earlier in 2010 discussed data integrity issues discovered during the data mining process that lasted 14 months. that hell period
to properly measure this market, you need to have balance. unfortunately integrity issues exist in source data where 1000s of units were not released to an ACTV state, and instead, were first uploaded up to 2yrs later in a PENDING state. And the pending update was wrong. We had to remove this poison from an otherwise elegant solution to properly track the existing resale marketplace. If new devs properly listed or even created a record for units, we would be able to go back further. Instead, what you will see is active inventory trends for 2006 and 2007 greatly underinflated and pending sales trends for early 2008 greated overinflated. In reality, the pending deals in early 2008, were signed into contract in 2006 and 2007.
Posted by urbandigs
Sat Apr 23rd, 2011 09:01 PM
we do, but its flawed. I described why in my post back last September titled The new dev problem
http://www.urbandigs.com/2010/09/the_new_dev_problem_standardiz.html
Alot of my stuff earlier in 2010 discussed data integrity issues discovered during the data mining process that lasted 14 months. that hell period
to properly measure this market, you need to have balance. unfortunately integrity issues exist in source data where 1000s of units were not released to an ACTV state, and instead, were first uploaded up to 2yrs later in a PENDING state. And the pending update was wrong. We had to remove this poison from an otherwise elegant solution to properly track the existing resale marketplace. If new devs properly listed or even created a record for units, we would be able to go back further. Instead, what you will see is active inventory trends for 2006 and 2007 greatly underinflated and pending sales trends for early 2008 greated overinflated. In reality, the pending deals in early 2008, were signed into contract in 2006 and 2007.
Posted by BM
Mon Apr 25th, 2011 01:20 PM
DO you have data/chart for contract that were signed and did not go through? (i.e. contract signed but did not close?) I know there's a lag in contract signed(pending sale) vs recording in ACRIS, but do you have such this lagged data that explicitly shows what percentage of "contract signed" which did not close, and came back on the market?(exclusive of new developments)?
Posted by urbandigs
Mon Apr 25th, 2011 02:36 PM
BM - yes we do have that. As you said, we will have to figure out a way to measure it considering the ACRIS lag in filings, but its on our to do list and hopefully will be up at some point. Cant give time table as we have so many things to do first.>All in time more charts will come