3-MTH Pending Sales Trend Check for Manhattan Neighborhoods

Posted by urbandigs

Mon Oct 17th, 2011 09:15 AM

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A: Lets give this a try as the last time I wrote about it was late August and it seemed to resonate well with readers and Manhattan brokers that follow this site. Here are simple 3-MTH Pending Sales trends for 16 Manhattan neighborhoods. Manhattan as a whole has seen pending sales trends decline 29.9% over the last 3 months, so by looking at the data below you can see which neighborhoods have both over-under performed the broader market trend.

3-MONTH PENDING SALES TRENDS

East Harlem: +10.9%
Gramercy/Flatiron: +4.4%
Murray Hill/Kips Bay: -17.6%
Chelsea/Midtown South: -19.2%
Inwood/Wash. Heights: -22.2%
Harlem/Hamilton Heights: -24.4%
Upper East Side: -29%
Harlem/Morningside Heights: -29.7%
Midtown East: -30.6%
Tribeca: -34.5%
LES/East Village/Union Square: -34.8%
Upper West Side: -37.1%
Midtown West/Clinton: -41.7%
Soho/Noho/West Village: -42.3%
Fidi/Civic Center: -42.6%
Battery Park City: -46.2%

There is a bit more red (deeper red I should say) this time around than from 7 weeks ago but we should mute this trend a bit as July, August and September tend to be the weakest months in the calendar year for new deal volume. With that said, new deal volume tends to tick up in October as new inventory comes to market in September - well we had the uptick in supply but Im yet to see any sustainable uptick in new deal volume. The 30-day new CONTRACTS SIGNED ticker is still hovering between the high 500s and low 600s; noticeably lower than the 749 new deals signed level we saw last October. Sellers should take note and adjust asking prices accordingly if there is a time pressure to sell - at the same time, quality bids should be given more consideration when new deal volume has been underperforming y-o-y trends.

Here are the leaders and laggards:

The Leaders --> East Harlem, Gramercy/Flatiron

The Laggards --> BPC, Fidi, Soho/Noho/W Village, Midtown West, UWS, LES/E Village, Tribeca

Its quite interesting to see the changes from the last post on this topic: AUG. 24th - 3-MTH Manhattan Sub-market Pending Sales Check. Specifically, East Harlem went from the bottom of the pile last time to the top of the list today. Other notable 3-month neighborhood demand trends include:

CHELSEA: trend declined from +9% in late August to -19% today
FiDi: trend declined from -5% in late August to -42% today
GRAMERCY/FLATIRON: trend rose from -13% in late August to +4% today

Manhattan continues to prove that it is a highly segmented marketplace with different neighborhoods and price points doing their own thing. I'll try to do this kind of check every few months so you can see which neighborhood demand trends are making notable moves in either direction.