Check on the Market Ticker
A: A quick check in on daily, weekly and 30-day pace of new deal volume, supply and off market changes in the Rebny Listing Service.
Here is a look at the ticker as of 11:02pm, Tuesday Feb 28th. On March 1st, the system will sanitize the data one last time and publish monthly stats for February - so Ill do a report then on how the last 30 days has performed.
Market is quite active as I can see 48 new deals signed today, 38 deals signed yesterday, and 261 new deals signed over the last 7-days. But the 30-day total is the most useful to track the current trend - and the ticker now shows 924 deals signed over the last thirty days. That is up sharply from a pace of low 600s for most of January.
Use the following table to interpret what that 30-day contracts signed total is telling us about current market conditions:
The hottest months of the year tend to see a pace of over 950 new deals signed, and the 4 hottest months for Manhattan are (in order) are May, June, April & March - so we are about to enter the most active period in the calendar year. Let's see if we can produce enough well priced supply to keep the high pace of new deals going.
The ticker will continue to show us whats happening daily in the field as it catches every REBNY mandated exclusive listing status update shared by the brokerage industry. As it stands now, we are on pace for the hottest February since 2008 when we saw 1,041 new deals signed.
Posted by mhamberger
Wed Feb 29th, 2012 09:02 AM
It is active, but if you lookat the 30 day to 7 day ratio of contracts signed, it is now over 3-1/2 to 1, quite a bit higher than it was a couple of weeks ago. Is this just a short term anomaly or is their some other trend forming that we are not seeing yet?
Michael
Posted by urbandigs
Wed Feb 29th, 2012 09:55 AM
Hey Michael - the 7-day has been between 220-260 or so for a # of weeks now which tells me that weekly pace has been on par with the strongest months of the year..it takes 3-4 weeks of that pace until the 30-day will catch up and hit the 900-1000 level. It seems it finally got there. I dont think its a short term anomaly, I think its an indication that the active season has started and that this Feb is on pace to be stronger than Feb in both 2011 and 2010. The next 4 months are typically even more active. Time will tell if this pace sustains itself until May-June like it usually does. With supply so tight, I have my questions on this pace sustaining itself
Posted by anon
Wed Feb 29th, 2012 09:00 PM
Bad bonus season on wall street does not seem to have any effect on the Manhattan market. If anthiing it seems to be the opposite. Can one draw a conclusion that Wall Street bonuses do not play a big part on Manhattan market anymore?
Posted by Jenson
Thu Mar 1st, 2012 10:18 AM
We are talking about absolute levels of apartment sales not dollar volume, or per apartment prices, so lower bonuses could have an impact on lower prices.
Posted by urbandigs
Thu Mar 1st, 2012 12:03 PM
sorry guys, battling a flu over here...Jensen is correct, we are talking about deal vol and not dollar volume, so its hard to say that wall street bonuses dont play any role anymore. We d have a $vol bar chart but its at a 90 day lag so we would have to wait to see how this active season compares to past ones. We will try to build more charts to show the types of apts, the price points, that are seeing new deal vol. One thing is sure, the depth of the buyer pool in this market is certainly strong.
Posted by mlawrence
Fri Mar 2nd, 2012 05:02 PM
The unseasonably warm weather play a small part in the high total.