3-MTH Pending Sales Check for Manhattan N'hoods

Posted by urbandigs

Tue Mar 20th, 2012 08:32 AM

A: Its been about 5 weeks since the last N'hood update, so lets check back in. My observations in the field are what many of my colleagues are telling me they are seeing as well --> lots of pricey product without desirable features leaving quality, well priced inventory very tight. The result is multiple offer situations for the best product out there that are priced realistically, mainly in the downtown markets. I'm hearing about bidding wars for $14M+ properties in Tribeca and I'm seeing accepted offers getting outbid before the buyer has a chance to sign. The data seems to be confirming this.

My note to sellers who have not seen strong interest/bids over the last 2+ months is to seriously reconsider your pricing strategy while the active season is in high gear! If your listing has not gotten interest or acceptable offers so far this year, its not the market, its your price and your expectations on your property's value! In the end the market always dictates value, not the seller or the the seller broker. Now lets get to the trends.

Notable Neighborhood Moves since the last check in mid-February:

-- Tribeca remains very active jumping from +43.2% to +68.9%
-- SoHo/NoHo/WVill surges from +24.7% to +68.5%
-- Midtown West jumps from +7.3% to +48.8%
-- Gramercy/Flatiron submarket is back in the black going from -16.7% to +4.2%
-- Harlem/Hamilton Heights is the only negative performing market over the last 3 months

Here are all the Manhattan neighborhood trends we track; I added supply trends after each neighborhood's 3-month pending sales #:


Tribeca: +68.9% -- supply down 4.3% over this time
Soho/Noho/West Village: +68.5% -- supply down 26.4% over this time
East Harlem: +52.4% -- supply down 21% over this time
Midtown West/Clinton: +48.8% -- supply down 6% over this time
Battery Park City: +40% -- supply down 18.9% over this time
Chelsea/Midtown South: +36.6% -- supply down 10.8% over this time
Midtown East: +33.1% -- supply down 8.5% over this time
Upper East Side: +29.6% -- supply down 1.4% over this time
Upper West Side: +27% -- supply down 8.3% over this time
LES/East Village/Union Square: +17.8% -- supply down 7.3% over this time
Murray Hill/Kips Bay: +15.1% -- supply down 8% over this time
Fidi/Civic Center: +12.5% -- supply down 20.5% over this time
Inwood/Wash. Heights: +10.8% -- supply down 3.1% over this time
Harlem/Morningside Heights: +8.5% -- supply down 18.5% over this time
Gramercy/Flatiron: +4.2% -- supply down 9.5% over this time
Harlem/Hamilton Heights: -12.8% -- supply down 5.2% over this time

The supply/demand trend should be quite clear, with supply down in every submarket we track over the last 3 months. Subscribers can further break down neighborhood trends in the SUBMARKET Chart section where you can further select a price range, # of bathrooms (we use bathrooms because we found Bedroom count to be inflated in the RLS data), and property type (co-op, condo, townhouse)

Lets end with a quick note from Donna Olshan's Weekly Luxury Market updates ($4M+ properties):

There were 17 sales last week, the 7th straight week that the total price of contracts signed at $4 million and above has exceeded $100 million. Since the beginning of the year, the luxury sector has recorded 143 contracts signed, totaling over $1.1 billion. Other trends: condos outselling co-ops 2.5 to 1 and Downtown remains the most popular luxury area with 20% more contracts signed than the Upper East Side.
The UrbanDigs real-time Manhattan data platform confirms what Donna is reporting on. We are in the process of revamping the entire Chart user interface so that UD subscribers can have much more flexibility with their chart searches. We expect to launch this upgrade with the new Comps Tool in 6-8 weeks or so. Our comps tool will focus on sales trends, building trends, days on market trends, listing discount trends, as well as a Comparable sale relevancy tool that will push forward the best comps for any target unit in mind. No small feat, but we are almost there. For those that gave us valuable feedback on chart UI upgrades and other tools you want to see, hang in there! Its all coming!!