Don't Mess Up In Here...!
Originally Published October 23, 2006 -- was requested to put this back up, so try to put yourself back into time & place -- The principles still apply in today's marketplace -- A: If you are a new seller who has been on the market 4 weeks or less, then this post is for you. Fact is, if you take a step back and in hindsight look at the traffic patterns of any given exclusive, a pattern becomes clear. That pattern is sometimes the difference of tens of thousands of dollars in the end; IT WAS FOR ME!
Unless the apartment is aggressively priced, most of the activity will happen in the first 2-3 weeks and in the final 3-4 weeks (due to price cuts).
THE FIRST 2-3 WEEKS (The 'Should Have' Period)
I like to call the first two weeks of every exclusive the 'should have' period. The first 2 weeks is the period of time where you get a bunch of appointments scheduled from 'B' buyers who are trying to learn the inventory of their price point and their agents who just want to do a deal already. Maybe you'll get a few 'A' buyers too. Most likely, you'll get a low ball bid. Many times this very early bid is the nightmare for sellers 5 months later. So, I refer to it from the seller's point of view as the, "I should have accepted that bid and saved 5 months of agony".
It makes me think of that scene in Casino where Joe Pesci stares down DiNero as he goes to pick up his wife, Sharon Stone, at Pesci's restaurant. You know that scene, where Pesci snears, "Hey! Don't Mess Up In Here...!"...

(not the scene but has that same look)
In Hindsight, every financial decision is 20/20; including whether or not YOU, THE SELLER should accept that offer.
It is during the first two-three weeks of listing your property that you will get the most interest and if lucky, an offer. The offer will not be high but will be very close, the same, or most likely HIGHER than what you eventually accept down the road after multiple price cuts!I SAY TO YOU, THE SELLER, DON'T MESS UP IN HERE! And if you do mess up and ignore the offer because there is so much activity and you won't sell below a certain price in the first 4 weeks, to NOT blame it on your broker for failing to move your property at the highest & best price possible down the road.
MY STORY: When I had my condo on the market at Astor Terrace, I showed you the work I did and how I was going to market it, I got the most activity during the first 3 weeks. Every open house was packed and I was thinking JACKPOT! I even got a bid. I was asking $1,075,000 (much higher than I knew it would sell for but it was my home, and my home is worth what I say...yea right!) and got a bid of $950K. I shrugged it away without a response and played hardball. Yea, real smart.
Four months later I found myself $6,000 into weekly NY Times advertising and other marketing expenses, tired, worried, and 2 price cuts down to $975,000. Traffic dried up and I was getting very nervous. HOW COULD I HAVE DISREGARDED THAT OFFER! Nights became sleepless and bills seemed threatening to my financial well being.
I winded up accepting a $935,000 one time take it or leave it bid, up from $925,000 orginially. It was all cash and 'looking to close within a month' that made the offer a no-brainer for me. But the mistake was made and the lesson was learned.
THE LESSON: Think about any bid that you receive in the first two to three weeks! Think about even if it is well below your asking price. If you decide NOT to accept a low offer in the first 3 weeks, than be prepared to possibly have your apartment on the market for the next few months! I'll explain why right now.
4th TO 16th WEEK OF YOUR LISTING
During weeks 4 to 16th of your listing, assuming your property was on the market for 4 months or more, your traffic is pretty much the same; SLOW. The broker is showing the apartment 1-2 times a week, and you are having 2-4 people per open house. Not a good sign. The listing seems to have staled up, and feelings of nervousness fill both the agent and the seller as thoughts of 'problems with marketing' begin to arise. I usually hear questions like, "Why are'nt you showing the apartment more often?", or "The ad in the NY Times wasn't big enough", and the best one, "I want this place SOLD, so get to work and SELL IT!". Yea, ok.
You know what I think at this point? I hate to be the bearer of bad news but if you had 30 buyers through your property with no bid submitted, than your asking price is too high and needs to come down to reality; i.e. YOU HAVE TO WAKE UP!
I've said this over and over here on UrbanDigs:
YOUR HOME IS WORTH ONLY WHAT SOMEONE IS BOTH WILLING & ABLE TO PAY FOR ITIt doesn't matter that you are so close to the subway station, or that you have brand new stainless steel appliances, or even that you have a terrace (cause I had a sick one!). It only matters what a buyer will bid for it and whether or not you HAVE TO sell it right now. The problem is that as a seller, you get emotional and ONLY look at the positive attributes of your property when you price it and review offers! The solution should be to be as unbiased a seller as possible! Notice if your apartment is on a low floor, or has no views, or gets no sunlight, or is on a very busy/noisy street, or has a floor-through layout, or has low ceilings, or whatever! This is what buyers will be thinking about when they bid. A biased seller will be unable to make rational decisions when it comes to accepting an offer.
Moving on.
FINAL 3-4 WEEKS
Traffic begins to heat up as you already hit your turning point and have succomb to price reductions. It happened for me after 12 weeks on the open market and 11 open houses. A very long time for any nervous seller!
I didnt get a contract signed until the 18th week and 16th open house and for lower than what I was offered 16 weeks ago!Your price comes down and activity picks up. Wow. I can't believe it. It's amazing how this works. Why didn't I think of this earlier? Why didn't I respect what my broker originally told me 15 weeks ago about where to price my unit? Why was I so blind?
BECAUSE YOU ARE HUMAN. BECAUSE ITS YOUR HOME. BECAUSE ITS HARD TO SELL ANYTHING THAT HAS EMOTIONAL TIES, MEMORIES, GOOD TIMES & BAD.
But you must not be clouded in your financial decisions. You must be able to recognize when to move on an offer. You must be able to realize that a highly qualified buyer may NOT be so easy to find!
This post was based entirely on the notion of hindsight and what I have noticed AFTER looking back at my clients and my own exclusive listings, to see if there were any patterns. There were. If anything should be gained from this post it's that you must have the vision and the will to accept a reasonable offer if:
1. It comes very early and from a qualified buyer
2. Is reasonable in the sense that you were going to price your apartment at 750K but decided last minute to raise that to 800K. Now you get a 700K offer in first 2 weeks.
3. You are under time pressure to sell
Don't Be Stupid. Don't Be Greedy. Don't Mess Up In Here!



Posted by Dave
Mon Oct 23rd, 2006 02:36 PM
This article articulates why i find this blog so compelling:
1) You use your own life lessons as experience points for the rest of us, and don't shirk away from detailing the financial loss you took (honest and open)
2) In revealing what happened with your situation, you then sumise handy hints not only for sellers, but for buyers too, through the painting of the sales transaction process, which gives buyers an insight into the emotive rollercoaster ride from "the other side of the fence" (practical and insightful)
3) You throw in a quote from Joe Pesci to illustrate your point for good measure.
In the words of Ace "DeNiro" Rothestein from the same movie:
"In the casino, the cardinal rule is to keep them playing and to keep them coming back. The longer they play, the more they lose, and in the end, we get it all."
If you take his position and apply it to a seller, potentially "gambling" by holding out for the big hit he or she thinks is just around the corner, thinks is what is coming their way, and is a sure fire thing - well,,,,it may just be the buyer who ends up "getting it all" for less than you had otherwise hoped.
Great work Noah, keep it up!
Posted by Noah
Mon Oct 23rd, 2006 03:37 PM
love it Dave! Thanks.
Posted by fatbear
Tue Oct 24th, 2006 01:25 PM
Great blog - been following for a while and agree with Dave that your own experience abetted by your pro knowledge is what makes the difference
This past Sunday the NYT scorecard had a co-op downtown (65 Nassau St) that listed for 650K and sold 26K higher with multiple bids - sorta strange in this market, until one looked at the time on market - 34 weeks - umm, did seller drop price dramatically (from let's say 750K or so) and the multi-bids resulted from the Fire Sale price - any ideas?
NYT link - http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2006/10/20/realestate/22sales_ready.html
Posted by Noah
Tue Oct 24th, 2006 02:20 PM
FatBear - Yep!
Apt 8B first listed at $750K on 10/25/2005. Lowered to $720K on 1/24/2006, lowered to $685K on 2/24/2006, and lowered again to $650K on 8/11/2006!
Sold for $795/sft eventually! 850 sft..
This many price cuts obviously winded up underpricing the unit, getting a ton of activity, and a bidding war!
Posted by J
Fri Mar 9th, 2007 03:50 PM
This author constantly confuses "then" and "than" usage.
Posted by Noah
Fri Mar 9th, 2007 06:52 PM
J - Not only do I constantly mess up that, but I misspell words, confuse effect with affect sometimes, and other grammar errors.
So what. I have to write very fast to keep up content on this site. Unless you are a blogger and know how time consuming it is, people think this is so easy and takes 10 min to do in addition to your job.
I got a 420 on my English SAT and I suck at grammar and spelling. However, my point should be easy to understand and that is what is important.
Posted by George Fotion
Mon Oct 29th, 2007 08:44 PM
GREAT BLOG ... GREAT ARTLICLE. One of my clients here in SoCal referred me to your site... I LOVE your philosophy and message. Keep it up. Hopefully I can refer you customers and clients in the future.
Your Colleague,
George Fotion
Call Realty Company
433 Via Corta
Palos Verdes Estates, CA 90274
310.346.6467
www.homeispalosverdes.com
Posted by Test King
Fri Feb 13th, 2009 06:31 AM
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Posted by Gary Winnick
Fri Mar 13th, 2009 05:48 AM
Good post.
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Posted by micro cut paper shredders
Wed Apr 15th, 2009 07:23 AM
Thanks for sharing your views & nice tips.
Posted by Coop Seller
Thu Apr 7th, 2011 02:04 PM
What if you have a property that is on the market, you get one or 2 buyers per week (never had a lot of buyers) during the first 3 weeks and no bids. I am not sure that you can jump to the conclusion that you are overpriced when no one (including brokers previewing the apt) has said it is overpriced or asked how negotiable you are. In my building, 2 larger units sold quickly (within 1 month). My unit is smaller but when you compare apartments on a square foot basis, it is not overpriced.
Posted by urbandigs
Fri Apr 8th, 2011 04:26 PM
Coop Seller - sorry for delay. What I can tell you is that the bulk of action will come in the listings first 3-4 weeks. Depending on current market trends, we can use that info to make better decisions since pricing a unit in a dynamic marketplace involves constant adaptation. If the market were seeing a sustained falloff in demand (pace of contracts signed), I would be inclined to agree with you and I would be less aggressive to jump to a conclusion unless you really had to sell fast. However, given current market trends, getting 1000+ deals signed in past 30 days for a few weeks or so now (up from 600s in Jan), if its been 3-4 weeks and your only getting 1-2 buyers a week and no bids, I would definitely utilize that information to think about your pricing strategy. I certainly would not ignore it. There is more an argument NOT to ignore it given current activity out there. Why are there no bids? If anything, I would have my hand on the trigger and wonder what kind of price adjustment Im comfortable trying first.
If you happen to underprice or price cut too far, the open market should make up for it in instant activity, and multiple offers. In the end, nobody is forcing you to accept an offer.
case in point, 103 Reade St, 3E. It got 17 bids, 3 were 75K over ask. Seller took listing off market and decided not to sell. My client was involved but was not nearly that far over ask.
I
Posted by hschein
Sat Apr 9th, 2011 10:53 AM
Hey Noah, I could care less about your grammar and syntax,this stuff is great!!!
Posted by urbandigs
Sat Apr 9th, 2011 10:56 AM
hschein - thx!! My older stuff especially was always rushed and had plenty of grammar errors. I always felt it was the point of the discussion that was most important..
Posted by liwen5566
Mon Apr 11th, 2011 05:00 AM
If you happen to underprice or price thomas sabo uk cut too far, the open market should make up for it in instant activity, and multiple offers. In the end, nobody is forcing you to accept an offer.
Posted by joey
Wed Apr 13th, 2011 09:54 PM
thanks for the blog. normally, i take the first reasonable bid and negotiate not much from it. i understand the what have and should have. you only need one interested buyer and don't discredit his/her reasonable bid. i just want to sell my place and move on.
Posted by BM
Thu Apr 14th, 2011 01:30 AM
Thanks so much for your blog. Your site is one of the few I've seen that's able to account for Time lags, outliers and other variables to skew the market capture. SO many published "data" summary, including all fancy stats and charts fails to address bias(starting from where and how they obtain the data and to end with how they interpret the data). I wish everyone in Manhattan real-estate market would read your blog, including buyers, sellers, sellers brokers, buyer's brokers. It would save so much time and unnecessary hassle, not to mention money lost(In addition- time is MONEY!!). Thanks for all the effort you put into this blog! It should be a "Manual 101" for everyone in the this market(i.e. Manhattan Real Estate mkt). Thanks again! BTW, for anyone complaining about his grammar! give me a break! would you care to read well edited "biased" article published on some newspaper or an accurate nicely summarized, easy to follow, yet very complex and (one of the most)accurate article? Misspelling etc is far less important and less consequential- to that of articles backed by misinformed, biased, and skewed stat analysis. Thanks again for your blog!
Posted by BM
Thu Apr 14th, 2011 01:37 AM
Dear joey: I wish all sellers are like you. Time is money! all that hassle of playing "mind game" of counter offering over and over to see how far they can get, drives me insane and I move on. When I submit an offer(which I believe most Manhattan people do the same), I do tons of research. I don't discredit and only try to find data in my favor to support minimum price to make an offer. Time is money. So when sellers try to negotiate by making counteroffers to see how much they can get and push the envelope, I say- "no thanks" and move on. 6 months down the line, their brokers contact me again to see if I am still interested! Yeah - ok!
Posted by BM
Thu Apr 14th, 2011 01:50 AM
Dear UrbanDigs, sorry for multiple posted comments! Just so excited to have finally stumbled on such great site.
I have a question. I am a buyer. I don't do low ball strategy. When i make an offer, I don't incorporate other properties no more than few block radius. HOWEVER, You mentioned that when buying a condo, only use data available within that building. That doesn't seem to make sens to me. Within any given condo, and accounting similar time line for price(i.e. price for properties within that building, sold at 2007 vs price of that at 2010 is like comparing apple to an orange- if I am trying to "price" and buy in 2011.) Under such case, you are only left with so limited data(i.e. properties listed for sale within reasonable time and within that building alone) to compare and get an accurate measure. Especially within any given condo, price for studio vs 3 bedroom- the net avg of price per sq ft of that building would be skewed since per sq ft for 3bedroom condo is not linear to that of studio unit. Am i wrong? I don't go off to include BPC properties to that of Financial district. But within Financial district, isn't it correct to incorporate similar buildings(i.e. amenities etc), in calculating what would be a reasonable price to make an offer?
Posted by krishurd17
Fri Mar 16th, 2012 08:21 AM
As always, spot on Noah! This is a great third party source for seller's to consider when understanding pricing strategy! If one is a smart broker, then they lay out the pricing "facts" and use third party resources to back up their data. (which btw I have pitched against many brokers who don't bother. They bank on having a big name behind them with nothing to back up their numbers. I recently, yet again just picked up another listing a big brand didn't service correctly)
I have to giggle that the only thing that "J" person got out of such a great article was grammar issues:) really? keep up the good fight my friend! love it!