3-MTH Pending Sales Check for Manhattan N'hoods
A: Lets check in on the 3-MTH pending sales trends for all Manhattan neighborhoods tracked by the UD system.
Notable Neighborhood Moves since the last check in mid-March:
-- Battery Park City market wakes up, surging 154% over the last 3 months
-- Tribeca cools down slightly seeing demand go from +68.9% to +57.6%
-- LES/Un.Sq/EVillage surges from +17.8% to +65.9%
-- Chelsea/Midtown South jumps from +36.6% to +91.5%
-- UWS jumps from +27% to +61.9%
Here are all the Manhattan neighborhood trends we track; I added supply trends after each neighborhood's 3-month pending sales #:
3-MONTH PENDING SALES TRENDS -- SUPPLY TREND
Battery Park City: +154.5% -- supply down 18.1% over this time
Chelsea/Midtown South: +91.5% -- supply down 6.6% over this time
LES/East Village/Union Square: +65.9% -- supply up 2.2% over this time
Upper West Side: +61.9% -- supply up 0.3% over this time
Gramercy/Flatiron: +59.1% -- supply down 1.9% over this time
Tribeca: +57.6% -- supply up 2.3% over this time
Upper East Side: +57.2% -- supply up 5.8% over this time
Inwood/Wash. Heights: +57.1% -- supply up 19.6% over this time
Midtown West/Clinton: +47% -- supply up 7.8% over this time
Harlem/Morningside Heights: +41.1% -- supply down 12.4% over this time
Murray Hill/Kips Bay: +39.6% -- supply up 5.3% over this time
East Harlem: +38.5% -- supply down 5% over this time
Soho/Noho/West Village: +34.8% -- supply up 11.5% over this time
Midtown East: +21.2% -- supply up 9.5% over this time
Harlem/Hamilton Heights: +12.9% -- supply up 5.5% over this time
Fidi/Civic Center: +12.5% -- supply down 5.2% over this time
The supply/demand trends continue to be quite clear --> new deal volume is pushing pending sales %changes to high levels while supply trends remain tight.
On a daily deal volume level, we are seeing around 40-50 new deals signed a day over the course of the business week - a very strong pace. The high end is also showing an uptrend but not nearly as active as the lower price points.
In terms of price points, over the last 3 months Manhattan Pending Sales trends are as follows:
PENDING SALES ALL MANHATTAN = +53.8%
PENDING SALES <$1M = +51.9%
PENDING SALES $5M+ = +27.6%
Manhattan tends to see monthly deal volume over the 1,200+ level only one month out of the calendar year - the reason being is that it gets harder and harder to sustain such high levels of new deal volume that this kind of action ultimately becomes self-defeating and will at some point, cool off.
Right now monthly deal volume is at 1,217, with another 57 deals going into contract yesterday alone. Sellers should take advantage of this kind of activity while it lasts and buyer's just have to deal with buy-side competition and a sense of urgency for quality, well-priced product a bit longer. Expect this pace of deal volume to slow as we get closer to the summer at the expense of even tighter supply as unsold listings tend to be removed from the market in the slower summer months.
Cheers!
Posted by mph
Tue Apr 24th, 2012 04:05 PM
As a buyer I'm feeling whiplash at how much the buyer/seller leverage equation has chanced in the past three months. Have lost a few places to offers coming in at levels that seem laughable to me (all cash foreign buyer types) and that I really don't think would have happened even as recently as Q1 2012. Any thoughts on the wisdom of going to the sidelines for a while and let the Spring feeding frenzy die down? Thanks.
Posted by urbandigs
Tue Apr 24th, 2012 05:34 PM
mph - your not alone. I experience 6 multiple offer situations in the last 2 months for buyers looking in downtown markets. There is simply a lack of well priced, quality product -- so much so that when one does come out, motivated and ready buyers know it and are all over it.
Sounds like a reasonable strategy assuming your frustrated with product in your price point and dont care to get more aggressive with your bidding strategy, something you likely will have to do if activity stays at these levels. However, when active season does die down, it will be accompanied by even less product as typically off-mkt trends rise as we get into the slower summer months. Thats your sacrifice. I would keep that strategy in mind, but continue to track new inventory in your market. If the right one comes, bid at your level, just tweak the strategy to current conditions as that will help you get sellers focus off the bat. Forget the 3-4 moves back n forth, just go in stronger and leave room for 1 more move to your bottom line #. Dont let it drag on
Posted by Andrey
Wed Apr 25th, 2012 04:19 PM
Noah - given your data, isn't it advantageous for sellers to wait until the increased activity leads to increased prices? Or at least to refuse offers 4%+ below asking price?
Posted by Jack
Thu Apr 26th, 2012 08:05 AM
MPH, i sold a month ago and there was a bidding war with two all cash bidders but they were all locals who seemed to be looking for a while. So don't get all up in arms about 'foreigners' as many of these guys are locals. Seems to me this is some pent up demand from the past few years.
Posted by urbandigs
Sat Apr 28th, 2012 08:49 AM
Andrey - nooooo! When you say wait for increased prices, that means to wait for price discovery for the sale to become public record, a good 2-4/5 months away. At that time, is very likely the pace of weekly/monthly new deal vol is way way lower than the 1200 level the 30-day pace is on now. That is a ton of action. Right now, there are tons of fish in the sea biting the lures. In the summer, the fish may be there, but they wont be biting anywhere near the frenzy they are biting now. Deal vol shows this.
As for sellers handling offers, it really is a function I guess of the starting asking price. If the asking price is realistic, then the seller may act that way, but if asking price is high or testing the market, I would engage all offers - of course, that engagement will be different depending on the quality of the offer and the bid. In fact, I wouldnt ignore any offer, just handle low offers differently.
Sellers would be wise to take advantage of current conditions as the market seems quite efficient right now at pricing property. If a seller thinks he is priced right and is not getting traffic or offers after say 45-60 days on market, then either the price is wrong or the property lacks features that buyers pay for here in this market.