Manhattan Supply vs Sales Volume -- Past 3 Years
A: We rarely take a look at how the market has performed over the past 2+ years, so lets take a quick look at how Manhattan has performed since the height of the credit crisis in 2009. It should put into perspective how far this market has come and give you a good sense of where we are and where we came from. We should also point out the general downtrend in supply over this time -- to me, it feels like this market has gotten awfully tight over the last few years, and the charts confirm it. But that hasn't stopped buyers from signing new deals at all - lets discuss.
Supply down 27% since early 2009 (green line)
Sales volume up 91.7% since early 2009 (red line)
Not many people expected this kind of comeback! The UD Manhattan sales volume chart is set to a 90 day lag to allow enough time for sales to be filed by the city register - so it cuts off near the end of the chart above. You can read up on ACRIS sale filing delays here, "Q1-2012 Sales That Never Made the Q1 Report".
The UrbanDigs real-time market ticker and chart systems tell me where that trend of sales volume above is likely to head over the next 3-6 months.
-- The market ticker shows me daily market production by REBNY members
-- Pending Sales show me the pace of current deal volume
Please click on this free link below that will show you:
Manhattan Supply vs Demand (pending sales) Trends
I've discussed how active Manhattan markets are right now as our daily ticker continues to put weekly deal vol over the 300 level which is fueling a rise in our measure of pending sales -- pending has surged 64% over the last six months alone!
This is all happening with tighter supply conditions from both one and two years ago; which makes me want to up the potency of this recent move up in new deal volume.
Its fairly safe to expect a sustainable and noticable tick up in both sales volume and median pricing trends over the next few quarters. Expect strong Q2 & Q3 quarterly firm reports w/ the focus on the Q3 report due to the lagging nature of ACRIS sale filings.
It is what it is until the data changes, and with supply so tight and deal volume so high, I have to wonder how sustainable the current trend is. Shift the leverage to the seller for the next 30-45 days and let's see if Manhattan can keep this deal volume up as we head into the summer.